On Thursday, 13 November, the Azerbaijan national team will play against Iceland in the penultimate round of the World Cup qualifying campaign. Iceland still has a chance to overtake Ukraine. A win in Azerbaijan would be preferable – then a draw against their competitor would suffice. For Azerbaijan, the match has no tournament significance – the team is simply hoping for a single victory in qualifying.

Azerbaijan predictably occupies the last place in their group, but they have shown themselves decently in several matches. For example, they conceded only three goals to France away, lost to Ukraine by the narrowest margin on neutral ground, and even managed to draw at home. The only significant failure occurred in the match against Iceland away – 0:5.

Azerbaijan currently has a footballing spirit – the country is relishing the successes of Qarabağ in the Champions League. Seven representatives from the club are in the national team. However, only two regularly play in European competitions. The rest of the squad is quite average, but there are still a few foreign players competing in the Turkish league. Azerbaijan is gradually progressing, although it remains an underdog.

The Icelandic team, after several disastrous qualifying campaigns, still has chances for second place, but there is no significant progress as of yet. In fact, the team has only won at home against Azerbaijan and managed a draw with France when their opponent had already qualified for the World Cup.

There are no European stars in the Icelandic squad. The main goalscorer is 28-year-old Genoa forward Albert Gudmundsson: he has scored 13 goals in 44 matches. In total, the squad features representatives from 14 different leagues.

Iceland managed to concede five goals to Ukraine – 3:5. So, there are clear defensive issues – they lean towards high-scoring football.

Bookmakers believe that Iceland will dominate. The odds for the visitors have dropped to 1.50. This can be disputed. The hosts will surely come out with increased motivation – this match is their real chance to secure a victory in qualification. At the same time, Azerbaijan is unlikely to turn down a 0:0 draw either.

Analysts think that the match is unlikely to end in a 0:0 draw – the odds for that are as high as 12.50. From a tournament perspective, such an outcome would not be a tragedy for Iceland. Ultimately, everything will be decided for the Northern team in their match against Ukraine. The only exception could be a Ukrainian victory over France, but that outcome is very unlikely. In fact, Iceland plays significantly worse away than at home. For instance, they already lost to Kosovo in 2025. It is logical to assume a low total and issues for the visitors.