Liverpool will play at home against Bologna on Wednesday, 2 October. The Italian club has unexpectedly dropped in the odds to 14.50.

Liverpool have had a solid start to the new season. The team made only one misfire - in the match against Nottingham. In the lost meeting, the Reds also created significantly more chances. Nottingham won unfairly. If we take xG figures, Liverpool are second in the APL after six rounds. Very importantly, there is a tremendous progress compared to last season in terms of danger allowed at their goal. Liverpool have conceded only two goals in the current league season. There is an element of luck here, but the Reds lead the championship in this indicator. The defence is even more reliable than that of Manchester City.

An important factor is a convenient calendar. The club has not yet met with the grands in good shape. They managed to score three goals each against Manchester United and Milan, but at the time of the game both teams were in crisis. And the other opponents are teams from the second half of the APL. The real big test hasn't happened yet.

Bologna looks better than expected. The team went through a total rebuild in the summer, saying goodbye to head coach Thiago Motta. On top of that, two major stars, Riccardo Calafiori and Joshua Zirksee, had to be sold. New coach Vinceno Italiano was able to avoid failure. Bologna have only one defeat in the new season - away to Napoli. Otherwise, the team looks decent, although there is a skew towards draws (five peaceful outcomes). In particular, they failed to beat Shakhtar in the Champions League. In recent meetings, there has been a positive trend: Bologna took three points from Monza away and did not lose at home to Atalanta. The club demonstrates a level of play comparable to the strong mid-table sides in the Italian league.

The odds for this match look strange. Liverpool are considered the unqualified favourites at 1.20. In fact, Bologna are rated at the level of the Champions League club. This is far from the truth. Liverpool are rightly considered favourites, but not by such a margin. Bologna is a skilful team with a very decent squad both in quality and price. The total value of the players is approaching €300m. It is highly doubtful that Bologna are doomed to defeat.

The visitors have a young and motivated team with an experienced coach. Italiano led Fiorentina to the Conference League final two years in a row. Bologna have some positive changes in the game. Plus, the newcomers have just adapted, so there is room for progress in the upcoming matches. We see a pragmatic game from the visitors.