On Thursday, 20 February, Ajax will play at home against Union St-Gillois in the return leg of their Europa League tie. The Dutch are the clear favourites. The odds for progression to the next round are 1.03.

Ajax is having a very good season. In 2025, the team has found confidence and has so far set the course for titles. In January, there was a frustrating exit from the Dutch Cup, but after defeats to AZ and RFU in the Europa League - a series of five consecutive wins. Ajax finished Galatasaray, then defeated Feyenoord and unexpectedly topped the championship race amid PSV's crisis. Before the tournament started, Ajax were not even second favourites, behind Feyenoord.

In the last three matches, the new leader did not concede at all. The total score is 8:0. The Belgians were also beaten 2-0. Interestingly, there is still no clear scorer in the team. The main trump card is the attacking variety. The team had 17 different players in the championship. The breakthrough season of veteran Davy Klassen is surprising. The midfielder has already scored seven goals in the Eredivisie - one of the top scorers.

Ajax play very efficiently in the Europa League, scoring an average of two goals per game. At the same time, there is no longer a trend towards the total: only five meetings out of ten have been with three goals or more.

Union are definitely not in crisis, but two defeats in a row turned out to be painful. The Belgians after Ajax lost also to Mechelen in their home league. In the championship, the club is located in third position, still retains chances for the title.

In the Europa League, Union played quite cautiously. There was not a single match for a total of more than three goals. Now we need to take risks, and even in Amsterdam - it should be a relatively open scenario.

Interestingly, it is Ajax who have a worse situation in terms of injuries. The Dutch can not count on as many as seven players. The losses of Henderson, Weghorst and Rieger - the three main performers - stand out. The Belgians will probably not play only Castro-Montes.

Union are not in crisis after all. The attack is able to create chances. For example, in the match against Mechelen it was 1.92 - 1.13 on xG, despite the defeat. That is to say, the realisation let them down.

The Belgians can revive the intrigue even on the road. The club has already shown itself worthy against Roma, Rangers and Braga.

Bookmakers give quite decent odds of 1.80 on the total more. Obviously, the guests need to take a risk - they will do it. Ajax's attack is in fine form - it could be an open and bold match. The hosts are unlikely to give up a two goal advantage, but Union can come away with a decent performance and claim at least a draw.