On Monday, 17 February, Barcelona will play at home against Rayo Vallecano. The teams close the 24th round of the Spanish championship. The Catalans are back in the championship race and are already putting pressure on Real Madrid; the rival has unexpectedly climbed to sixth place and even qualifies for the Champions League.

Barcelona 2025 is shaping up to be a very good year. There was a misfire in the championship against Alaves, but otherwise they managed to find the perfect pace. Right now, it is Hans-Dieter Flick's team that is the best in La Liga, if we take the current form. The Catalans scored seven goals against Valencia, before upsetting Sevilla four times. Robert Lewandowski has been remarkably consistent, with 19 goals, and the Pole has been without a slump. Rafinha is in fiery form too: the Brazilian is in contention for the Ballon d'Or, having scored eight times in six games.

Barcelona will not be able to count on the suspended Fermin Lopez in their next game. In addition, Araujo, Christensen, Bernal and Ter Stegen are long-term injured.

Mid-table Rayo Vallecano is one of the main discoveries of the season in La Liga. The club is one of the outsiders in terms of transfer value, but is fighting for a place in the top 5. Under certain conditions, fifth place could provide a ticket to the Champions League. The 37-year-old coach Iñigo Martinez has already virtually saved the team a place in the top league. Now it is possible to fight for the European Cup.

Rayo took thirteen points in five rounds - the best result on this distance. If we consider ten games, there was only one defeat. Interestingly, for the entire championship Rayo does not even get in the context of overall performance: the club created chances for 32 goals, and scored only 27. And in defence the opposite situation - they should have conceded seven goals more.

Rayo's trump card is the involvement of almost the entire midfield and attack in goal. Eight men scored two goals or more, but only Jorge de Frutos made four goals.

"Bees" in recent meetings more often play for a total less. Very productive matches are a rarity.

The team is by no means a convenient opponent for Barcelona. The Catalans managed to win only two matches out of the last seven against Rayo. Importantly, the meetings have rarely been very productive. In eight matches they have never beaten the total more than 3, and now the odds are 1.43 for such an outcome. Clear overestimation. Even a total of less than 4 can be bet for a favourable 1.61. Barcelona can not win all the time with a big score. The team has a difficult Champions League calendar ahead, there is little point in smashing all opponents. Moreover, Rayo is a tough opponent with a very solid defence.