On Saturday, 12 October, the Bulgarian national team will play against Luxembourg. This is the third strongest division of the Nations League. The odds look a bit strange: the hosts are the clear favourites, although Luxembourg have recently played the knockout matches for the right to qualify for the Euros.

Bulgaria are finally experiencing a bit of an upswing after years of stagnation. The national team has not lost in eight consecutive matches, but there are too many nuances: firstly, the Bulgarians score very little, secondly, the level of opponents, to put it mildly, left much to be desired, thirdly, there are more draws than wins.

Formally, the series looks convincing, but only Northern Ireland and Tanzania have won within its framework. Both matches were won with the same score of 1-0. There was also a series of draws against Azerbaijan, Romania, Slovenia and Belarus - definitely not the grands of football. Just teams comparable in class to Luxembourg. In the last four meetings - two zero draws.

There are still no players of high European level in the Bulgarian national team. Almost all play either in the local league or represent medium-sized championships. Only Kirill Despodov has scored more than ten goals in this team. The striker plays in Greece for PAOK.

Luxembourg had previously issued an extremely bad series - four defeats with a total score of 0:9, but even here you need to look at the context. Before the European Championship, they lost to Belgium and France with a score of 0:3. This result was predictable. After that, in the Nations League, they lost to Northern Ireland away (0:2) and Belarus at home (0:1). The game at home was a failure in terms of the quality of play. It is possible that now coach Luke Holtz will even abandon the model with three centre-backs.

Luxembourg's squad is of a higher level than Bulgaria's. The backbone consists of young players playing in European leagues, there are even representatives of top clubs. For example, midfielder Leandro Barreiro from Benfica. The main striker Jerson Rodriguez is returning. The 29-year-old striker scored 21 goals for the national team. He could well be in the starting line-up - which is bad news for Bulgaria.

Luxembourg are quite capable of rebuilding. The 5.00 odds are a clear underestimation of the visitors. Bulgaria haven't shown much in their matches. The team has a relatively decent defence, but the football is very cautious, and due to individual skill the guests have more chances to win.

Personal meetings do not set up for such odds. Bulgaria has been tormented with Luxembourg even in the best of times, and the last two matches were draws. In 2022, the rivals played without goals.