On Wednesday, 29 January, Salzburg will face Atletico at home. The Austrian club has lost even a theoretical chance of getting into the top-24, while a draw will be enough for the Spaniards not to worry about the top-8. Even a defeat probably won't deny them a place in the top eight.

Salzburg is one of the biggest disappointments of the tournament. The team was predicted to advance to the next stage. The Austrians were unable to rebuild after last season's unexpected setback. Salzburg were clear favourites to win the Austrian league, but went through a difficult period with coach Pep Leinders. The ex-assistant of Jurgen Klopp was not ready to work on his own and failed.

In the Austrian championship Salzburg is ten points behind the first place. Curiously, the league is currently still in the winter break. This has a hard-to-predict impact on the participants in the European cups. On the one hand, there is more rest, on the other hand, they lose their rhythm. In Madrid, Salzburg were hit by a crush: Real Madrid scored five goals, the freshness was definitely not felt.

Atletico quietly solved the main task in the Champions League. In the last round managed to beat Bayer beautifully in ten. Madrid conceded at home with a minimum score, but eventually scored two goals. In the course of the match passed the odds above 40.00 on the victory of the hosts.

But in the championship, the ambitious campaign runs the risk of being cut short where it was not expected at all. Atletico first sensationally lost to Leganes away, and then at home failed to beat Villarreal. It was just a lack of energy after an emotional meeting with Bayer. You can't exactly complain about bad luck. The opponent was simply better and closer to victory. An alarming signal for Atletico in the context of the championship race.

The injury situation is much worse for the hosts. The Austrians will not be able to count on five players. Atletico will not play only Pablo Barrios and Xavi Galan, who are far from being the leaders.

The question of motivation looks key. Simeone is unlikely to torment key players in a match where they can play carefully for a draw or even a minimal defeat. Salzburg are also unlikely to refuse a peaceful outcome. Atletico's mood will largely depend on the parallel matches. If the players realise that there is no point in fighting even for a draw, a surprise is possible.

The odds on Salzburg have already reached 9.00. There is no particular logic in this. The teams can easily play out a pragmatic scenario. The Austrians still have a certain level of skill. In terms of composition, the club corresponds to the mid-table and La Liga outsiders. Atletico are not in the best shape and are likely to play without their leaders. Even on a two goal handicap, the odds of 1.50 are decent.